DECIPIT FRONS PRIMA MULTOS

US Markets - May 11, 2010

2010-05-11T05:48:00.000-07:00

When I said back in March when the DJIA gets beneath 10600 we would erase most of the gains for 2010 in short order...I did not expect it to happen in a matter of minutes. At one point nearly eight months of gains were eroded. We will need to retest the 9800 area with conviction and then the "Buffett Blunder" of 9600. If 9600 fails...we will quickly head toward 8000 to retest the July 09 lows. Europe - to try and correct a problem that took years to develop in a matter of a weekend is foolhardy. The more government intervenes, the more things get screwed up. As the markets come to realize this, faith in government erodes and hope is lost. 2010 still remains the year of the dollar. Target-90. Unfortunately for the US, the contagion will come to spread to the US as well. I am still perplexed with gold. Gold is either making a double top here and will initially retrace back toward the $800 area or is on its way to new highs, toward $1500. Still looking for a weekly close below 10600...to confirm last week was not an anomaly. Good luck and good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Mar. 17, 2010

2010-03-17T18:38:00.000-07:00

Well it seems we are right back where we started...not exactly. The last time the DJIA was at this level back in January, the euphoria was almost at a fever pitch...that is until it wasn't anymore and the market proceeded to fall 600 points within 3 trading days. But that was in the distant past, as was the sub prime crisis, the banking crisis, and the sovereign debt crisis. Oh thats right...the markets still have not factored the sovereign crisis in yet. The Greek crisis is really just the canary in the coal mine when it comes to Europe, not to mention the US. The same accounting gimmicks that were used in Greece, were used in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and by countless state and local governments here in the States. Ultimately this will lead to the dollar losing its reserve status...and massive inflation in the US. However, as far now...there is zero inflation on the horizon...even with the Feds ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Yet no one questions and asks why? Deflation. The DJIA is testing the upper end of its range once again...with anemic volume and a short-term overbought condition, once the DJIA turns... it should erase most of the gains for 2010 in short order. There is only so much the rubber band can stretch before it snaps...and the run in the last few weeks is just about one for the record books. A weekly close below 10600, should jumpstart a near term sell-off...and break the retracement wedge...Good luck and good trading. -Dio.

Weekly Commentary - Feb. 28,2010

2010-02-28T19:47:00.000-08:00

Wow...Canada wins the gold in hockey...never would have saw that coming. Let's see what this week brings. Major event for the week obviously still remains...the Greeks. Rumors are swirling like mad. But ultimately Greece will have to resort to major budget cuts which ultimately even if agreed to will lead to increased civil unrest. The President of Greece resorted to calling the Germans a bunch of Nazi's and said that they never gave back the gold that they stole during WW2. Yeah, good one...insult the very people you need to bail you out. Might be absolute coincidence but after that was said the Greek President will be meeting with Barack on Mar. 9. So the future is still unclear, however the Euro is getting very oversold and if the bailout news hits the euro will catch many people short and fly. Longer term prospects for Europe remain...Spain, Portugal, Italy...it just gets worse and worse. Dollar target remains - 90. And as far as all the people saying that the sovereign debt crisis of Greece is contained...I am having flashbacks to the whole sub prime crisis, where everyone was saying it was contained...including Bear Stearn's...saying it would not effect us. A year later they were bankrupt. I remember this vividly because I said that they would be the only firm I would work for...well that plan went to hell. In any event, watch out for the beginning of the month buy programs kick in, in addition to the usual Monday Market Levitation. A rally back above 10450...might very well be in the cards. A failure at this level confirms the top in the markets on a weekly and monthly charts. If the Greek tragedy continues the markets will not be able to take it...and will falter fairly quickly. Beware the Ides of March. Gold looks like it might be forming a nice little down channel from 1125-1025. Definitely trade-able as it awaits the break below 1000 on its way to sub 800. The most important thing right now is to be extremely flexible as short term volatility is sure to increase several times over in the next few weeks. I'm still trying to figure out how the economy is going to get back to normal anytime soon, when by the governments own optimistic estimates, unemployment will not get back to 5% until 2016. Update: Doesn't look good for the Greeks. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/no-german-rescue-plan-for-debtridden-greece-20100301-pbj7.html

Weekly Commentary Feb. 21, 2010

2010-02-21T15:34:00.000-08:00

What an absolutely incredible few weeks its been. Yup, I'm talking about the complete 180 degree attitude-shift toward the dollar. Anybody remember just about 3 months ago...Everyone was calling for the dollar to collapse...and the Euro would take its place, on the world stage? 1500 Pips later...now everyone is terrified about Greece and the future of the Euro. Absolutely incredible. Now the "Short the Euro" trade is getting a little crowded, and might have actually seen a climax on the "Fed Surprise" late last week. Even if the dollar still has some upside against the Euro, it is getting tired and is due for a well deserved rest...potentially carving out a few hundred pips of retracement before resuming the dollar strengthing trend of 2010. As far as the US markets...most of the retracement back to 10450 is already complete with the possiblity of one last throw over, before the downtrend resumes strongly. As such, 4/5 of the total short position will be complete this week. The final break of the markets is imminent. Get ready for things to get hectic. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio. Real time updates via: twitter.com/dioveritas

Update...Just getting back from hospital...

2010-02-18T12:42:00.000-08:00

Just getting back from the hospital...with another bottle of morphine and steroids...sweet...lol. Back surgery is inescapable. Will be taking it easy to avoid any repeat emergencies until surgery...but I have a netbook now just in case...hehe. Complete update on markets this weekend. Good luck and good trading.

US Markets - Feb. 8, 2010

2010-02-08T06:25:00.000-08:00

US Markets retraced a part of their fall on Friday, which coincided with the dollar weakness toward the close as positions were squared for the weekend. The next move for the dollar is to push toward the 83 area. How much the market will be able to levitate from here is questionable. Although markets are oversold...fear and safety override the risk trade. 3/5 of total short position will be complete by Wednesday. Good luck and Good trading. - Dio.

US Markets - Feb. 5, 2010

2010-02-05T05:57:00.000-08:00

Absolutely perfect. The dollar has performed exactly as expected...pushing above 80. An absolutely beautiful run. Barring any major debt default/geopolitical event over the next few days...EUR/USD should start to retrace this latest downside move. Upside potential is dependent on where the Euro bottoms. This retracement will be the last opportunity to climb aboard before things build up speed. Each time the markets try and rally back the dollar reigns things in pretty quickly. Monday Market Levitation would coincide with the EUR/USD retracement. On the next dip trip the DJIA will hit 9600. 2010 is looking to be much more violent than 2008. 2/5 short position complete. 3/5 short position will be complete early next week. Complete update and scenarios in this weekends commentary. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Feb. 4, 2010

2010-02-04T06:04:00.000-08:00

US dollar has finally breached the the 79.50 level. If the dollar can close at 79.50 or above for the week, it will sound the retreat for the markets...confirming a break through 10000 for the DJIA is inevitable. EUR/USD has performed remarkably...currently just north of my target of the 137.50 area...setting up for a potential retracement within the larger downtrend. Normally, I would say that it would be unlikely for the dollar to make any significant gains through Friday, however, with the unemployment report coming up...anything is possible. Will have to wait and see. In any event...if the Euro does start to retrace...it will provide for an excellent opportunity to go long the dollar in anticipation of the next leg down. So far 2010, has performed as expected...with spectacular gains for the dollar. All scenarios remain intact. Good luck and Good Trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Feb. 3, 2010

2010-02-03T06:20:00.000-08:00

The US dollar has been strengthening since early morning...the likely hood of any significant gains in the markets is greatly reduced as a result of dollar strength. I will continue to add to the short position which should be completed at the latest by Friday...with the markets rolling back over. I will add an additional 20% when we break through 10043 on the DJIA...to total 3/5 of the total desired position. Good luck and good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Feb. 2, 2010

2010-02-02T06:21:00.000-08:00

Doubtful markets will be able to hold on to their gains for more than a day or two...looking forward to adding to the short position. 15 banks failed in 5 states in January. If we're in an economic recovery like the government says...I'd hate to see what a slowdown looks like. -Dio.

Intraday action: @ 2:15pm ...Began adding to short position...should be complete by Friday.

Weekly Commentary -Feb. 1,2010

2010-02-01T19:08:00.000-08:00

The next few months will prove to be much more volatile then the last few. The markets have proven that Newton still is alive and well. But they managed to grab hold of a safety line today. If they manage to get a foothold they still can regain some lost ground back to the 10350-10450 area. If not, they will roll over fairly quickly to 9600...the last safety line...anchored by the Oracle of Omaha himself back in early November. Once we break 9600, things will get interesting pretty quick. The downturn in the markets should coincide with the dollar firmly breaking out above 80...target still remains -90. Concurrently, the EUR/USD could potentially be testing the 131 level, or at the very least be well on its way. Commodities had one heck of a rally in '09... but in 2010, much of that gain will be given back...thanks to 2010 being the year of the dollar. Once gold's rally is exhausted, 1120-1160, it will break closer toward $1000. Before this bear market is over, the government will be forced into action...this time to save their own jobs...but to no avail. -Dio.

US Markets - Feb. 01, 2010

2010-02-01T06:07:00.000-08:00

The DJIA attempted a rally on Friday from short-term oversold conditions...managing to rally up 100+ points before rolling over and making a new weekly low. It is now Monday and the markets will try to levitate one more time. If the markets fail to gain a foothold here...we will take aim at the 9600 level before the week is out. As before...everything hinges on the dollar. The USD hit the 79.50 area and so far has bounced off...if it is unable to break this level it should setup a retracement to 78. Likewise, EUR/USD has performed splendidly, and is potentially getting ready to take a little breather...potentially getting back to the 142 area. Essentially these pauses are minor and in the larger picture, inconsequential...as the larger picture shows the direction for the markets is down, and the direction of the US dollar is up. These pauses provide excellent opportunities to add to short positions, or sell any remaining long positions. Weekly commentary will be posted tonight. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Jan. 29, 2010

2010-01-29T06:04:00.000-08:00

US markets will make one last attempt to get back up today. If this fails to materialize to return the markets back to the 10350-10450 area today...the DJIA will complete its monthly reversal...similar to the gold markets top in December. As stated before the next leg down is not far away. EUR/USD is performing as expected trending to the 137.50-135 area. A break above 79.50 in the USD will make things very interesting. All current scenario's remain intact. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Jan. 28, 2010

2010-01-28T06:16:00.000-08:00

As expected the US Markets bounced back after digging in a little deeper. Current scenario remains intact...with a potential bounce to the 10350-10450 area...in the event the markets are unable to retrace back to those levels...the markets will rollover fairly quickly dropping down to the 9600 area. In any event in will not be long before the next leg down begins. Concurrently the EUR/USD will continue its decline through the 137.50-135 range...as the next leg down begins. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Jan. 27, 2010

2010-01-27T06:22:00.000-08:00

Markets should decline a little more before completing a short term falling wedge which would be a perfect set up for the mini knee jerk bounce...this could push the DJIA back to the 10450 area. With the failure of that rally...I will be adding 1/5 to the short position...to total 40% of the desired short position. Ultimately this knee jerk bounce will be nothing more than daily noise of the markets...which is why looking at the weekly close allows one to see the bigger picture. Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Patience is a virtue. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan. 26, 2010

2010-01-26T06:32:00.000-08:00

As of Friday's close...in addition to breaking the trendline, MACD has generated a weekly sell signal...the markets have huge downside potential before MACD would register an oversold condition. Will be adding 1/5 to the short position upon failure of the knee jerk bounce this week...to total 40% of the desired short position. Target for the bounce maximum 10450. The next few months will prove much more exciting, then the last few. Good luck and good trading. -Dio.

Weekly Commentary- Positioning for 2010

2010-01-25T05:07:00.000-08:00

Last week confirmed the break of the markets across the board. The DJIA closed beneath its critical trend line which has held up until this point since March 2009. As previously stated the rally since March has been nothing more than a bear market rally. With the confirmation of this breakdown Friday...the decline can now continue. Looking back into history shows us that after the crash of 1929, the markets rallied 50% from Nov. 1929- Apr.1930. Most so called market experts, have not experienced a bear market their entire careers...and do not understand the magnitude of its implications. Even the stock market crash of 1987...was a market crash within the confines of a broader bull market. The ideas of buy and hold, buy the dips...etc...are all notions of bull market ideology. If the usual Monday Market levitation is not able to get back at least some of what was lost in the last three trading days...the decline can quickly become main street news. We have the potential to retrace back to 10450 with relative ease however, how far and fast we get back, if at all... will tell the tale of the tape. The next downside target for the DJIA is in the 9600 area. The US dollar will continue to rally throughout 2010 with multiple mini upward retracements along the way. As such, overall commodity prices will decline, in addition to the price of gold and silver. The previously discussed ideas of RSW, DZZ, and UUP should all work out nicely over the coming months of this broader decline. For more aggressive individuals, shorting opportunities abound just about everywhere. For those uncomfortable with trading, the most beneficial strategy would be to sit in cash...and wait for a more opportune entry point back into the markets. Further details and scenarios to follow as time allows...due to necessary preparations for surgery. Questions or comments are welcomed, and can be addressed to me through Neatlysaid.com, via pm-ing, as well as here. Good luck and good trading. -Dio

US Markets - Jan. 22, 2010

2010-01-22T05:36:00.000-08:00

The markets are for the first time since March '09 about to break their up trends. The completion of the formation on a weekly basis was the setup, and the break of the up trend on a weekly basis will be the confirmation...setting the stage for a significant correction. Numbers to watch for the close are DJIA: 10375, S&P500 1119.50, Nasdaq 2250. Along with the weekly break,(DZZ) should close above 13.85, (UUP)above 22.25,(RSW) above 56.85. The US dollar has bounced slightly since nearing 1.40,as expected, and should resume its downtrend toward 1.3750-1.38 area. Barring any late Friday afternoon reversals...and the usual Monday Market Levitation...the markets upward retracement from March is complete and the downtrend will resume. Watch the closing numbers for a definitive answer. Weekly commentary will have complete wrap up and scenarios for the coming downtrend.-Dio.

US Markets -Jan.21, 2010

2010-01-21T06:15:00.000-08:00

Markets are become much more volatile and choppy...finalizing the formation of the markets tops across the board...the US dollar is leading the way. EUR/USD dropped to 1.4030 overnight... a hair's breath away from my short term target of 1.40. Close enough for a potential knee jerk reaction bounce. Additional downside is likely with potential for 1.3750-1.3800, before the next upside mini-retracement for the Euro is underway. As for the DJIA, this would coincide with the upside potential push to 10850. All scenarios remain intact. -Dio.

US Markets - Jan. 20, 2010

2010-01-20T05:12:00.000-08:00

Just returned from the hospital last night. I have avoided surgery for now, and will undergo steroid injections Monday...but without improvement from the steroids injections, I will need to undergo surgery soon thereafter. But for now, a bottle of morphine and oxycodone will aid in my pain management. That being said, the markets have performed accordingly. The DJIA with its sharp break below the trend line on Friday...followed by a complete reversal rallying back to just underneath the same trend line yesterday is clearly showing early signs of the long awaited decline. Again looking to weekly closing prices to help eliminate the daily noise of the markets...allowing the DJIA room to run to 10850, but not essential, as all the requirements for the downtrend to begin are now in place. As stated previously...the dollar is the key to market direction...and looks to have finally completed its retracement. Near term target remains - 90. EUR/USD has completed its retracement with a break below 1.4250, now trading at 1.4140, near term target remains 1.40. Once again these are just the initial developing stages of the aforementioned trends. Once the downside is confirmed on weekly closings on the indices as well as currency and commodity markets action could be taken to benefit... as these trends will prove to be very lucrative indeed. All scenarios remain intact. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan.15, 2010

2010-01-15T04:59:00.000-08:00

Please excuse the day break in my posting. Had to go to the hospital...might have to have surgery on my back...I'll find out later today. Anyways...the rise to 10700 in the DJIA finally materialized...although a month later than my original scenario (Dec.15, 2009). The bearish wedge is now part of two separate setups...the first, (a flat rising triangle), which led up to the santa claus rally...and the second, (a rising wedge) which was the santa claus rally...this setup is not too common...last seen back in the summer of 1986. The trading scenario still remains the same, however, the push above the trend line would be 10850...at a maximum, not 10650. If this is exceeded without a sharp reversal...a closing of the initial 1/5 of the short position will be warranted. As of today all scenarios still remain intact. Full details this weekend...after all, I should have plenty of down time. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan. 13, 2010

2010-01-13T03:15:00.000-08:00

As the DJIA starts to decline, breaking 10340...the dollar will be breaking out as well. As this develops taking a short position in EUR/USD could be very lucrative. The setup is already taking place...a drop below 10340 lights the fuse and a drop below 10235 confirms the breakdown. The latter part of the week with Aussie employment data, German CPI as well as US CPI and Retail Sales numbers... and of course Friday's Expiration's should make for a more interesting weekly close. The waiting is the hardest part. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan. 12, 2010

2010-01-12T06:51:00.000-08:00

The markets are in limbo...waiting for the dollar to make its move. It is often the waiting that makes for the most difficult trading decisions. Time is often the greatest adversary to a mans resolve...not price. The situation with Greece, Dubai, and China is almost surreal. The only thing I can liken this situation to is the movie "A Perfect Storm"...when near the end Mark Wahlberg, upon seeing the break in the storm says with a sigh of relief and excitement..."we made it!"...then George Clooney, responded despondently, "Yeah, we made it". We are just in the eye of the storm...and things are about to get much worse. People do not understand that in the fall of 2008, Congress was moments away from declaring Martial law in the United States. But, everything is fine now. The scariest words imaginable are... I'm from the government, and i'm here to help. -Dio.

US Markets -Jan 11,2010

2010-01-11T06:31:00.000-08:00

Not much new to add...see weekly commentary as to this weeks set up. Nothing new under the sun.- Dio.

Weekly Commentary- Positioning for 2010-Pt 2

2010-01-10T18:03:00.000-08:00

The DJIA has completed it bearish wedge on Friday...the upper end of the range being 10620. As stated earlier, I expect one last push above this trend line,(this would also coincide with the normal Monday Market Levitation), followed by a sharp reversal. 10650 would suffice for Monday. A weekly close of 10340 or below confirms the break of the uptrend since March. For the S&P500 1110. One way to play the downside in the S&P500 is (RSW). It has a double inverse correlation to the S&P500, meaning if the S&P drops 10% RSW goes up 20%. If the markets break, RSW should close at or above $58 on a weekly close. One reason to look at weekly closing prices is that it helps filter out the intraday and daily noise of the markets. Gold has had its monthly reversal...every time gold has had a monthly reversal since the bull market in gold began in 1999, it has had a significant decline. Target remains below $800/oz. The US dollar index is looking to confirm its base, which should be accomplished this week. Whether that base takes the form of a retest of 76's or a push toward 80 will be settled this week. Either way it amounts to small potatoes...as this is the beginning of at least a one year bull market in the dollar, the near-term target remains 90. As for the EUR/USD, upside could see 1.47. A break below 1.4250 will confirm the completion of the euro's retracement, signaling further weakness in the months ahead. There are many tempting opportunities abroad, however the risks/reward at this time do not warrant dabbling until a readjustment has taken place. The best way to play the market is never make any trade that will not let you sleep. There will always be opportunities... wait for the guaranteed trade...you do not have to be invested 100% of the time. The outcome of this week will prove to be very interesting. All markets and assumptions of scenarios are confirmed by one another...therefore all current scenarios remain in place. -Dio

US Markets - Jan. 8, 2010

2010-01-08T06:23:00.000-08:00

All scenarios still remain intact. The DJIA is almost complete with its bearish wedge. The range is narrowing daily, 10620-10520 for today. Preferably I would like to see a new reaction high above the trend line, and then a sharp reversal, today 10635 would suffice, although not required. Once the wedge breaks all markets will become lively very quickly. Coincidentally, the dollar is just about ready to resume its upward push. Complete scenarios this weekend. Good trading and stay lucky. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan 7,2010

2010-01-07T06:34:00.000-08:00

The dollar looks like it could have completed its retracement, still a little too soon to say definitively, would like to see the weekly close to confirm. If it is complete expect the next push to fill the gap just north of 80, going all the way back to Bastille Day in July. Vive la difference! The DJIA still has some room to go in the wedge, (preferably making a new reaction high above the trend and then a sharp reversal) so until the dollar takes the lead once more...a couple of extra cups of coffee will be needed to keep from falling asleep.-Dio.

US Markets - Jan 6,2010

2010-01-06T06:34:00.000-08:00

Not much new to add...just waiting for the completion of a mini bearish wedge in the DJIA which based is formed at the start of the Santa Rally on the 18th. The break of this wedge will set up the the test of 10340. All views of currencies, commodities and markets remain intact. -Dio.

US Markets -Jan5,2009

2010-01-05T06:31:00.000-08:00

Gold with its monthly reversal should begin a major decline which should end below $800/oz. The onset of this decline is tied to the dollar which currently is still undergoing its own retracement which should be completed shortly. Until then markets can continue to perform their dead man float. Current scenario remains intact. -Dio

US Markets - Jan. 04, 2010

2010-01-04T06:08:00.000-08:00

As the hopefulness of the new year fades, the downtrend will resume in the US markets. The S&P 500 managed to close below 1121, on a weekly and monthly basis, not a hopeful sign. The number to watch on the DJIA is 10340, once this breaks...it should start this set of dominoes in motion...setting up a test of 10235 and a confirmed break of the uptrend line from March of 2009. This break should coincide with the breakout in the dollar and breakdown in gold prices. Complete update in Positioning for 2010 Part 2, which I will post this weekend. -Dio.

US Markets -Dec.31,2009

2009-12-31T06:52:00.000-08:00

Last day of this decade...and what a decade its been. It's all but official...this decade has been the worst in history for the US markets. Gold will be completing its monthly reversal unless it manages to rally up $100 by the close today...(highly improbable). The currency markets are light as most traders will not be back until after the new year. 2010 will be a year of historic proportions. Have a happy new year. - Dio.

US Markets- Dec.30, 2009

2009-12-30T06:20:00.000-08:00

Year end re-balancing and lack of volume bodes for a uneventful resolution to the question of market direction until after the new year. The dollar is the key and is unlikely to break out until after the new year. 20% of the short position is complete. This week's commentary will focus on the scenarios of emerging markets, the dollar trade, commodities. -Dio.

US Markets -Dec29, 2009

2009-12-29T06:20:00.000-08:00

Although the indices continue to float upward, volume remains anemic. The current scenario remains in place... continuing to add to short positions this week...not totaling more than 20% of the desired short position. Gold can continue its counter-trend retracement toward 1200...once this has completed, it should resume it primary trend toward $800. -Dio.

US Markets -Dec28 ,2009

2009-12-28T06:09:00.000-08:00

I hope everyone had a pleasant holiday. Markets have managed to close above their resistance levels. This is normally a very bullish signal, however on such light volume it remains suspect. S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq are all 100% overbought across the board...on daily, weekly and monthly charts...a very dangerous sign. EUR/USD - is undergoing its counter trend retracement and should resume its decline shortly...once this retracement is complete the top in the euro will have been confirmed...short term target remains 1.40. The remnants of the Santa Claus rally should be used as a final selling opportunity. -Dio.

US Markets - Dec23, 2009

2009-12-23T06:20:00.000-08:00

Not much to add. Lighter volume indicates most people are taking a wait and see approach, and taking a early holiday. Everyone is anxious to put 2009 into the history books and hope for the best. Hope springs eternal and the dodo is extinct. Unless the markets have a massive rally into year end, the indices will have had there worst decade in history. Yes, even worse then the decade of the Great Depression. Giving credence to the saying...this time is Different. Unfortunately most people won't realize this until its too late...most people did not sell in Oct 2007, and after the market rallied back from Nov 2008 to Jan 2009. Look back into history, the markets rallied back from Nov 1929 into Apr 1930, in excess of 50%, only to continue to fall back down. Nothing is new under the sun. -Dio

US Markets- Dec22, 2009

2009-12-22T06:45:00.000-08:00

The Nasdaq is finally reaching its resistance...2251. It is the equivalent of 1121 on the S&P 500...now all major markets have completed their respective corrective retracements. It is unlikely that the markets breakthrough with such strong head winds of resistance and the dollar strength. On failure of markets to break through these final levels...shorting opportunities now present themselves for the overall market once again. Opening a maximum of 20% of the desired position over the next week...adding to it upon the markets breaking down DJIA: 10235, S&P500 1085, Nasdaq 2115.-Dio.

US Markets- Dec21, 2009

2009-12-21T06:03:00.000-08:00

Markets this holiday shortened week could potentially find the elusive Santa Claus rally but if he does materialize, he had better be good and make new highs...otherwise the the markets may very well start being very bad. The DJIA dropped to 10263.90 close enough to near-term support of 10235 for a slight bounce. How far and for how long of a bounce will give indications to the actual strength of the market. A break below 10235 will setup a test of 9700. This coincides with the dollar retracing part of its recent move, which so far has been nothing short of phenomenal. Near-term target remains 90. Gold should also retraces part of its decline, to coincide with the dollar retracement. Current scenario remains intact any advances in the markets should be viewed as selling opportunities. -Dio.

Weekly Commentary- Positioning for 2010-Pt 1

2009-12-20T18:24:00.000-08:00

There has been talk of US markets now moving out of sync with the dollar, this however has proven premature and the inverse relationship between the two remains intact. The dollar will continue to strengthen throughout 2010. There are very strong technical reasons for this breakout, but the fundamental reasons are even more compelling. The dollar still remains as the standard of deferred payment for all international settlements. The insatiable desire of institutions, corporations, and countries to pay off their debt obligations will further fuel the demand for the dollar. Until the Bretton Woods system is changed this will continue to be the case, despite the actual demise of the value of the dollar in real terms. One way to play the rise in the dollar would be: (UUP). Over the next year gold will continue to retrace its most recent advance, potentially falling below $800 per ounce. One way to play the sell-off in gold is: (DZZ). Once this retracement is complete however, gold will continue its climb with the potential of making a substantially higher high...and ultimately we will head down the road to the retooling of Bretton Woods. -Dio.

US Markets - Dec18,2009

2009-12-18T06:02:00.000-08:00

The increased probabilities of further geopolitical events warrants extreme caution for 2010. Once again any advances in US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Cash positions should be increased for future buying opportunities. Numbers to watch remain the same. S&P500- 1085, DJIA- 10235, NASDAQ-2115. -Dio

US Markets- Dec17, 2009

2009-12-17T06:05:00.000-08:00

Not much new to add. Friday's weekly close will be pivotal, next week is a holiday shortened week and expected to lack participation. Dollar showing signs of continued strength. Once again any advances in US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Numbers to watch remain the same. S&P500- 1085, DJIA- 10235, NASDAQ-2115. On a side note (Bernanke as TIME's man of the year? Kudos Ben. But, he is more like Don Quixote tilting at windmills. Keep fighting the good fight...keep fighting that invisible inflation.)-Dio.

US Markets, Forex - Dec16,2009

2009-12-16T06:10:00.000-08:00

US Dollar- Global unrest and sovereign debt defaults becoming more frequent will result in a major advance in the dollar -(the standard of deferred payment for all international settlements) Target-90. EUR/USD near term target 1.40. AUD/USD near term .80. Once again any advances in US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Numbers to watch remain the same. S&P500- 1085, DJIA- 10235, NASDAQ-2115. -Dio.

US Markets - Dec15, 2009

2009-12-15T05:49:00.000-08:00

Interesting...Is this it? If it is then the initial retracement of the dollar yesterday would be viewed as shallow at best. Once again any additional advances in the market should be viewed as a selling opportunity. The coming year will bring significant downside risk to the markets with a high probability of making new lows. The risk/reward relationship does not warrant in any market participation to the upside at this time. DJIA -10700. Numbers to watch remain the same...S&P500- 1085, DJIA-10235, NASDAQ-2115. -Dio

US Markets - Dec14, 2009

2009-12-14T05:18:00.000-08:00

US dollar retracement underway, as expected. Any additional near term advances in the US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Dollar correction has potential to retest 75 range. Once retracement is complete, the US markets will resume their downward slide. Targets to watch...S&P 500- 1085...DJIA-10235...NASDAQ-2115. Events to watch...Possible Monthly Gold reversal, if this happens significant downside is likely. -Dio

US Dollar, US Markets, Gold & Oil

2009-12-13T14:29:00.000-08:00

US dollar finally setting up for a breakout. After possible near-term retracement of dollar's recent move... gold, oil, DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fall on dollar strength. Numbers, Targets, and Scenarios to follow. -Dio