US Markets - Jan. 29, 2010

US markets will make one last attempt to get back up today. If this fails to materialize to return the markets back to the 10350-10450 area today...the DJIA will complete its monthly reversal...similar to the gold markets top in December. As stated before the next leg down is not far away. EUR/USD is performing as expected trending to the 137.50-135 area. A break above 79.50 in the USD will make things very interesting. All current scenario's remain intact. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Jan. 28, 2010

As expected the US Markets bounced back after digging in a little deeper. Current scenario remains intact...with a potential bounce to the 10350-10450 area...in the event the markets are unable to retrace back to those levels...the markets will rollover fairly quickly dropping down to the 9600 area. In any event in will not be long before the next leg down begins. Concurrently the EUR/USD will continue its decline through the 137.50-135 range...as the next leg down begins. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Jan. 27, 2010

Markets should decline a little more before completing a short term falling wedge which would be a perfect set up for the mini knee jerk bounce...this could push the DJIA back to the 10450 area. With the failure of that rally...I will be adding 1/5 to the short position...to total 40% of the desired short position. Ultimately this knee jerk bounce will be nothing more than daily noise of the markets...which is why looking at the weekly close allows one to see the bigger picture. Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Patience is a virtue. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan. 26, 2010

As of Friday's close...in addition to breaking the trendline, MACD has generated a weekly sell signal...the markets have huge downside potential before MACD would register an oversold condition. Will be adding 1/5 to the short position upon failure of the knee jerk bounce this week...to total 40% of the desired short position. Target for the bounce maximum 10450. The next few months will prove much more exciting, then the last few. Good luck and good trading. -Dio.

Weekly Commentary- Positioning for 2010

Last week confirmed the break of the markets across the board. The DJIA closed beneath its critical trend line which has held up until this point since March 2009. As previously stated the rally since March has been nothing more than a bear market rally. With the confirmation of this breakdown Friday...the decline can now continue. Looking back into history shows us that after the crash of 1929, the markets rallied 50% from Nov. 1929- Apr.1930. Most so called market experts, have not experienced a bear market their entire careers...and do not understand the magnitude of its implications. Even the stock market crash of 1987...was a market crash within the confines of a broader bull market. The ideas of buy and hold, buy the dips...etc...are all notions of bull market ideology. If the usual Monday Market levitation is not able to get back at least some of what was lost in the last three trading days...the decline can quickly become main street news. We have the potential to retrace back to 10450 with relative ease however, how far and fast we get back, if at all... will tell the tale of the tape. The next downside target for the DJIA is in the 9600 area. The US dollar will continue to rally throughout 2010 with multiple mini upward retracements along the way. As such, overall commodity prices will decline, in addition to the price of gold and silver. The previously discussed ideas of RSW, DZZ, and UUP should all work out nicely over the coming months of this broader decline. For more aggressive individuals, shorting opportunities abound just about everywhere. For those uncomfortable with trading, the most beneficial strategy would be to sit in cash...and wait for a more opportune entry point back into the markets. Further details and scenarios to follow as time allows...due to necessary preparations for surgery. Questions or comments are welcomed, and can be addressed to me through Neatlysaid.com, via pm-ing, as well as here. Good luck and good trading. -Dio

US Markets - Jan. 22, 2010

The markets are for the first time since March '09 about to break their up trends. The completion of the formation on a weekly basis was the setup, and the break of the up trend on a weekly basis will be the confirmation...setting the stage for a significant correction. Numbers to watch for the close are DJIA: 10375, S&P500 1119.50, Nasdaq 2250. Along with the weekly break,(DZZ) should close above 13.85, (UUP)above 22.25,(RSW) above 56.85. The US dollar has bounced slightly since nearing 1.40,as expected, and should resume its downtrend toward 1.3750-1.38 area. Barring any late Friday afternoon reversals...and the usual Monday Market Levitation...the markets upward retracement from March is complete and the downtrend will resume. Watch the closing numbers for a definitive answer. Weekly commentary will have complete wrap up and scenarios for the coming downtrend.-Dio.

US Markets -Jan.21, 2010

Markets are become much more volatile and choppy...finalizing the formation of the markets tops across the board...the US dollar is leading the way. EUR/USD dropped to 1.4030 overnight... a hair's breath away from my short term target of 1.40. Close enough for a potential knee jerk reaction bounce. Additional downside is likely with potential for 1.3750-1.3800, before the next upside mini-retracement for the Euro is underway. As for the DJIA, this would coincide with the upside potential push to 10850. All scenarios remain intact. -Dio.

US Markets - Jan. 20, 2010

Just returned from the hospital last night. I have avoided surgery for now, and will undergo steroid injections Monday...but without improvement from the steroids injections, I will need to undergo surgery soon thereafter. But for now, a bottle of morphine and oxycodone will aid in my pain management. That being said, the markets have performed accordingly. The DJIA with its sharp break below the trend line on Friday...followed by a complete reversal rallying back to just underneath the same trend line yesterday is clearly showing early signs of the long awaited decline. Again looking to weekly closing prices to help eliminate the daily noise of the markets...allowing the DJIA room to run to 10850, but not essential, as all the requirements for the downtrend to begin are now in place. As stated previously...the dollar is the key to market direction...and looks to have finally completed its retracement. Near term target remains - 90. EUR/USD has completed its retracement with a break below 1.4250, now trading at 1.4140, near term target remains 1.40. Once again these are just the initial developing stages of the aforementioned trends. Once the downside is confirmed on weekly closings on the indices as well as currency and commodity markets action could be taken to benefit... as these trends will prove to be very lucrative indeed. All scenarios remain intact. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan.15, 2010

Please excuse the day break in my posting. Had to go to the hospital...might have to have surgery on my back...I'll find out later today. Anyways...the rise to 10700 in the DJIA finally materialized...although a month later than my original scenario (Dec.15, 2009). The bearish wedge is now part of two separate setups...the first, (a flat rising triangle), which led up to the santa claus rally...and the second, (a rising wedge) which was the santa claus rally...this setup is not too common...last seen back in the summer of 1986. The trading scenario still remains the same, however, the push above the trend line would be 10850...at a maximum, not 10650. If this is exceeded without a sharp reversal...a closing of the initial 1/5 of the short position will be warranted. As of today all scenarios still remain intact. Full details this weekend...after all, I should have plenty of down time. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan. 13, 2010

As the DJIA starts to decline, breaking 10340...the dollar will be breaking out as well. As this develops taking a short position in EUR/USD could be very lucrative. The setup is already taking place...a drop below 10340 lights the fuse and a drop below 10235 confirms the breakdown. The latter part of the week with Aussie employment data, German CPI as well as US CPI and Retail Sales numbers... and of course Friday's Expiration's should make for a more interesting weekly close. The waiting is the hardest part. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan. 12, 2010

The markets are in limbo...waiting for the dollar to make its move. It is often the waiting that makes for the most difficult trading decisions. Time is often the greatest adversary to a mans resolve...not price. The situation with Greece, Dubai, and China is almost surreal. The only thing I can liken this situation to is the movie "A Perfect Storm"...when near the end Mark Wahlberg, upon seeing the break in the storm says with a sigh of relief and excitement..."we made it!"...then George Clooney, responded despondently, "Yeah, we made it". We are just in the eye of the storm...and things are about to get much worse. People do not understand that in the fall of 2008, Congress was moments away from declaring Martial law in the United States. But, everything is fine now. The scariest words imaginable are... I'm from the government, and i'm here to help. -Dio.

US Markets -Jan 11,2010

Not much new to add...see weekly commentary as to this weeks set up. Nothing new under the sun.- Dio.

Weekly Commentary- Positioning for 2010-Pt 2

The DJIA has completed it bearish wedge on Friday...the upper end of the range being 10620. As stated earlier, I expect one last push above this trend line,(this would also coincide with the normal Monday Market Levitation), followed by a sharp reversal. 10650 would suffice for Monday. A weekly close of 10340 or below confirms the break of the uptrend since March. For the S&P500 1110. One way to play the downside in the S&P500 is (RSW). It has a double inverse correlation to the S&P500, meaning if the S&P drops 10% RSW goes up 20%. If the markets break, RSW should close at or above $58 on a weekly close. One reason to look at weekly closing prices is that it helps filter out the intraday and daily noise of the markets. Gold has had its monthly reversal...every time gold has had a monthly reversal since the bull market in gold began in 1999, it has had a significant decline. Target remains below $800/oz. The US dollar index is looking to confirm its base, which should be accomplished this week. Whether that base takes the form of a retest of 76's or a push toward 80 will be settled this week. Either way it amounts to small potatoes...as this is the beginning of at least a one year bull market in the dollar, the near-term target remains 90. As for the EUR/USD, upside could see 1.47. A break below 1.4250 will confirm the completion of the euro's retracement, signaling further weakness in the months ahead. There are many tempting opportunities abroad, however the risks/reward at this time do not warrant dabbling until a readjustment has taken place. The best way to play the market is never make any trade that will not let you sleep. There will always be opportunities... wait for the guaranteed trade...you do not have to be invested 100% of the time. The outcome of this week will prove to be very interesting. All markets and assumptions of scenarios are confirmed by one another...therefore all current scenarios remain in place. -Dio

US Markets - Jan. 8, 2010

All scenarios still remain intact. The DJIA is almost complete with its bearish wedge. The range is narrowing daily, 10620-10520 for today. Preferably I would like to see a new reaction high above the trend line, and then a sharp reversal, today 10635 would suffice, although not required. Once the wedge breaks all markets will become lively very quickly. Coincidentally, the dollar is just about ready to resume its upward push. Complete scenarios this weekend. Good trading and stay lucky. -Dio.

US Markets- Jan 7,2010

The dollar looks like it could have completed its retracement, still a little too soon to say definitively, would like to see the weekly close to confirm. If it is complete expect the next push to fill the gap just north of 80, going all the way back to Bastille Day in July. Vive la difference! The DJIA still has some room to go in the wedge, (preferably making a new reaction high above the trend and then a sharp reversal) so until the dollar takes the lead once more...a couple of extra cups of coffee will be needed to keep from falling asleep.-Dio.

US Markets - Jan 6,2010

Not much new to add...just waiting for the completion of a mini bearish wedge in the DJIA which based is formed at the start of the Santa Rally on the 18th. The break of this wedge will set up the the test of 10340. All views of currencies, commodities and markets remain intact. -Dio.

US Markets -Jan5,2009

Gold with its monthly reversal should begin a major decline which should end below $800/oz. The onset of this decline is tied to the dollar which currently is still undergoing its own retracement which should be completed shortly. Until then markets can continue to perform their dead man float. Current scenario remains intact. -Dio

US Markets - Jan. 04, 2010

As the hopefulness of the new year fades, the downtrend will resume in the US markets. The S&P 500 managed to close below 1121, on a weekly and monthly basis, not a hopeful sign. The number to watch on the DJIA is 10340, once this breaks...it should start this set of dominoes in motion...setting up a test of 10235 and a confirmed break of the uptrend line from March of 2009. This break should coincide with the breakout in the dollar and breakdown in gold prices. Complete update in Positioning for 2010 Part 2, which I will post this weekend. -Dio.