US Markets -Dec.31,2009

Last day of this decade...and what a decade its been. It's all but official...this decade has been the worst in history for the US markets. Gold will be completing its monthly reversal unless it manages to rally up $100 by the close today...(highly improbable). The currency markets are light as most traders will not be back until after the new year. 2010 will be a year of historic proportions. Have a happy new year. - Dio.

US Markets- Dec.30, 2009

Year end re-balancing and lack of volume bodes for a uneventful resolution to the question of market direction until after the new year. The dollar is the key and is unlikely to break out until after the new year. 20% of the short position is complete. This week's commentary will focus on the scenarios of emerging markets, the dollar trade, commodities. -Dio.

US Markets -Dec29, 2009

Although the indices continue to float upward, volume remains anemic. The current scenario remains in place... continuing to add to short positions this week...not totaling more than 20% of the desired short position. Gold can continue its counter-trend retracement toward 1200...once this has completed, it should resume it primary trend toward $800. -Dio.

US Markets -Dec28 ,2009

I hope everyone had a pleasant holiday. Markets have managed to close above their resistance levels. This is normally a very bullish signal, however on such light volume it remains suspect. S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq are all 100% overbought across the board...on daily, weekly and monthly charts...a very dangerous sign. EUR/USD - is undergoing its counter trend retracement and should resume its decline shortly...once this retracement is complete the top in the euro will have been confirmed...short term target remains 1.40. The remnants of the Santa Claus rally should be used as a final selling opportunity. -Dio.

US Markets - Dec23, 2009

Not much to add. Lighter volume indicates most people are taking a wait and see approach, and taking a early holiday. Everyone is anxious to put 2009 into the history books and hope for the best. Hope springs eternal and the dodo is extinct. Unless the markets have a massive rally into year end, the indices will have had there worst decade in history. Yes, even worse then the decade of the Great Depression. Giving credence to the saying...this time is Different. Unfortunately most people won't realize this until its too late...most people did not sell in Oct 2007, and after the market rallied back from Nov 2008 to Jan 2009. Look back into history, the markets rallied back from Nov 1929 into Apr 1930, in excess of 50%, only to continue to fall back down. Nothing is new under the sun. -Dio

US Markets- Dec22, 2009

The Nasdaq is finally reaching its resistance...2251. It is the equivalent of 1121 on the S&P 500...now all major markets have completed their respective corrective retracements. It is unlikely that the markets breakthrough with such strong head winds of resistance and the dollar strength. On failure of markets to break through these final levels...shorting opportunities now present themselves for the overall market once again. Opening a maximum of 20% of the desired position over the next week...adding to it upon the markets breaking down DJIA: 10235, S&P500 1085, Nasdaq 2115.-Dio.

US Markets- Dec21, 2009

Markets this holiday shortened week could potentially find the elusive Santa Claus rally but if he does materialize, he had better be good and make new highs...otherwise the the markets may very well start being very bad. The DJIA dropped to 10263.90 close enough to near-term support of 10235 for a slight bounce. How far and for how long of a bounce will give indications to the actual strength of the market. A break below 10235 will setup a test of 9700. This coincides with the dollar retracing part of its recent move, which so far has been nothing short of phenomenal. Near-term target remains 90. Gold should also retraces part of its decline, to coincide with the dollar retracement. Current scenario remains intact any advances in the markets should be viewed as selling opportunities. -Dio.

Weekly Commentary- Positioning for 2010-Pt 1

There has been talk of US markets now moving out of sync with the dollar, this however has proven premature and the inverse relationship between the two remains intact. The dollar will continue to strengthen throughout 2010. There are very strong technical reasons for this breakout, but the fundamental reasons are even more compelling. The dollar still remains as the standard of deferred payment for all international settlements. The insatiable desire of institutions, corporations, and countries to pay off their debt obligations will further fuel the demand for the dollar. Until the Bretton Woods system is changed this will continue to be the case, despite the actual demise of the value of the dollar in real terms. One way to play the rise in the dollar would be: (UUP). Over the next year gold will continue to retrace its most recent advance, potentially falling below $800 per ounce. One way to play the sell-off in gold is: (DZZ). Once this retracement is complete however, gold will continue its climb with the potential of making a substantially higher high...and ultimately we will head down the road to the retooling of Bretton Woods. -Dio.

US Markets - Dec18,2009

The increased probabilities of further geopolitical events warrants extreme caution for 2010. Once again any advances in US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Cash positions should be increased for future buying opportunities. Numbers to watch remain the same. S&P500- 1085, DJIA- 10235, NASDAQ-2115. -Dio

US Markets- Dec17, 2009

Not much new to add. Friday's weekly close will be pivotal, next week is a holiday shortened week and expected to lack participation. Dollar showing signs of continued strength. Once again any advances in US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Numbers to watch remain the same. S&P500- 1085, DJIA- 10235, NASDAQ-2115. On a side note (Bernanke as TIME's man of the year? Kudos Ben. But, he is more like Don Quixote tilting at windmills. Keep fighting the good fight...keep fighting that invisible inflation.)-Dio.

US Markets, Forex - Dec16,2009

US Dollar- Global unrest and sovereign debt defaults becoming more frequent will result in a major advance in the dollar -(the standard of deferred payment for all international settlements) Target-90. EUR/USD near term target 1.40. AUD/USD near term .80. Once again any advances in US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Numbers to watch remain the same. S&P500- 1085, DJIA- 10235, NASDAQ-2115. -Dio.

US Markets - Dec15, 2009

Interesting...Is this it? If it is then the initial retracement of the dollar yesterday would be viewed as shallow at best. Once again any additional advances in the market should be viewed as a selling opportunity. The coming year will bring significant downside risk to the markets with a high probability of making new lows. The risk/reward relationship does not warrant in any market participation to the upside at this time. DJIA -10700. Numbers to watch remain the same...S&P500- 1085, DJIA-10235, NASDAQ-2115. -Dio

US Markets - Dec14, 2009

US dollar retracement underway, as expected. Any additional near term advances in the US markets should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Dollar correction has potential to retest 75 range. Once retracement is complete, the US markets will resume their downward slide. Targets to watch...S&P 500- 1085...DJIA-10235...NASDAQ-2115. Events to watch...Possible Monthly Gold reversal, if this happens significant downside is likely. -Dio

US Dollar, US Markets, Gold & Oil

US dollar finally setting up for a breakout. After possible near-term retracement of dollar's recent move... gold, oil, DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fall on dollar strength. Numbers, Targets, and Scenarios to follow. -Dio