US Markets - May 11, 2010

When I said back in March when the DJIA gets beneath 10600 we would erase most of the gains for 2010 in short order...I did not expect it to happen in a matter of minutes. At one point nearly eight months of gains were eroded. We will need to retest the 9800 area with conviction and then the "Buffett Blunder" of 9600. If 9600 fails...we will quickly head toward 8000 to retest the July 09 lows. Europe - to try and correct a problem that took years to develop in a matter of a weekend is foolhardy. The more government intervenes, the more things get screwed up. As the markets come to realize this, faith in government erodes and hope is lost. 2010 still remains the year of the dollar. Target-90. Unfortunately for the US, the contagion will come to spread to the US as well. I am still perplexed with gold. Gold is either making a double top here and will initially retrace back toward the $800 area or is on its way to new highs, toward $1500. Still looking for a weekly close below 10600...to confirm last week was not an anomaly. Good luck and good trading. -Dio.

US Markets - Mar. 17, 2010

Well it seems we are right back where we started...not exactly. The last time the DJIA was at this level back in January, the euphoria was almost at a fever pitch...that is until it wasn't anymore and the market proceeded to fall 600 points within 3 trading days. But that was in the distant past, as was the sub prime crisis, the banking crisis, and the sovereign debt crisis. Oh thats right...the markets still have not factored the sovereign crisis in yet. The Greek crisis is really just the canary in the coal mine when it comes to Europe, not to mention the US. The same accounting gimmicks that were used in Greece, were used in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and by countless state and local governments here in the States. Ultimately this will lead to the dollar losing its reserve status...and massive inflation in the US. However, as far now...there is zero inflation on the horizon...even with the Feds ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Yet no one questions and asks why? Deflation. The DJIA is testing the upper end of its range once again...with anemic volume and a short-term overbought condition, once the DJIA turns... it should erase most of the gains for 2010 in short order. There is only so much the rubber band can stretch before it snaps...and the run in the last few weeks is just about one for the record books. A weekly close below 10600, should jumpstart a near term sell-off...and break the retracement wedge...Good luck and good trading. -Dio.

Weekly Commentary - Feb. 28,2010

Wow...Canada wins the gold in hockey...never would have saw that coming. Let's see what this week brings. Major event for the week obviously still remains...the Greeks. Rumors are swirling like mad. But ultimately Greece will have to resort to major budget cuts which ultimately even if agreed to will lead to increased civil unrest. The President of Greece resorted to calling the Germans a bunch of Nazi's and said that they never gave back the gold that they stole during WW2. Yeah, good one...insult the very people you need to bail you out. Might be absolute coincidence but after that was said the Greek President will be meeting with Barack on Mar. 9. So the future is still unclear, however the Euro is getting very oversold and if the bailout news hits the euro will catch many people short and fly. Longer term prospects for Europe remain...Spain, Portugal, Italy...it just gets worse and worse. Dollar target remains - 90. And as far as all the people saying that the sovereign debt crisis of Greece is contained...I am having flashbacks to the whole sub prime crisis, where everyone was saying it was contained...including Bear Stearn's...saying it would not effect us. A year later they were bankrupt. I remember this vividly because I said that they would be the only firm I would work for...well that plan went to hell. In any event, watch out for the beginning of the month buy programs kick in, in addition to the usual Monday Market Levitation. A rally back above 10450...might very well be in the cards. A failure at this level confirms the top in the markets on a weekly and monthly charts. If the Greek tragedy continues the markets will not be able to take it...and will falter fairly quickly. Beware the Ides of March. Gold looks like it might be forming a nice little down channel from 1125-1025. Definitely trade-able as it awaits the break below 1000 on its way to sub 800. The most important thing right now is to be extremely flexible as short term volatility is sure to increase several times over in the next few weeks. I'm still trying to figure out how the economy is going to get back to normal anytime soon, when by the governments own optimistic estimates, unemployment will not get back to 5% until 2016. Update: Doesn't look good for the Greeks. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/no-german-rescue-plan-for-debtridden-greece-20100301-pbj7.html

Weekly Commentary Feb. 21, 2010

What an absolutely incredible few weeks its been. Yup, I'm talking about the complete 180 degree attitude-shift toward the dollar. Anybody remember just about 3 months ago...Everyone was calling for the dollar to collapse...and the Euro would take its place, on the world stage? 1500 Pips later...now everyone is terrified about Greece and the future of the Euro. Absolutely incredible. Now the "Short the Euro" trade is getting a little crowded, and might have actually seen a climax on the "Fed Surprise" late last week. Even if the dollar still has some upside against the Euro, it is getting tired and is due for a well deserved rest...potentially carving out a few hundred pips of retracement before resuming the dollar strengthing trend of 2010. As far as the US markets...most of the retracement back to 10450 is already complete with the possiblity of one last throw over, before the downtrend resumes strongly. As such, 4/5 of the total short position will be complete this week. The final break of the markets is imminent. Get ready for things to get hectic. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio. Real time updates via: twitter.com/dioveritas

Update...Just getting back from hospital...

Just getting back from the hospital...with another bottle of morphine and steroids...sweet...lol. Back surgery is inescapable. Will be taking it easy to avoid any repeat emergencies until surgery...but I have a netbook now just in case...hehe. Complete update on markets this weekend. Good luck and good trading.

US Markets - Feb. 8, 2010

US Markets retraced a part of their fall on Friday, which coincided with the dollar weakness toward the close as positions were squared for the weekend. The next move for the dollar is to push toward the 83 area. How much the market will be able to levitate from here is questionable. Although markets are oversold...fear and safety override the risk trade. 3/5 of total short position will be complete by Wednesday. Good luck and Good trading. - Dio.

US Markets - Feb. 5, 2010

Absolutely perfect. The dollar has performed exactly as expected...pushing above 80. An absolutely beautiful run. Barring any major debt default/geopolitical event over the next few days...EUR/USD should start to retrace this latest downside move. Upside potential is dependent on where the Euro bottoms. This retracement will be the last opportunity to climb aboard before things build up speed. Each time the markets try and rally back the dollar reigns things in pretty quickly. Monday Market Levitation would coincide with the EUR/USD retracement. On the next dip trip the DJIA will hit 9600. 2010 is looking to be much more violent than 2008. 2/5 short position complete. 3/5 short position will be complete early next week. Complete update and scenarios in this weekends commentary. Good luck and Good trading. -Dio.